Between the Hashmarks - Preseason
Sunday, July 11, 2004
By Darren Krause
Contributing Author
New home, New fantasy value?
The nature of NFL free agency means there are players on the move from one team to another on a regular basis. When players leave one team for another, often times they have been under achieving or over-the-hill. But nonetheless, some players have gone on and had great success when they left. Look at Jerry Rice, Joe Montana, Drew Bledsoe, just to name a few, who bucked the odds when they seemed at the end of the road, and still came back and made fantasy waves.
Let’s take a look at some of the bigger names who have changed teams, and decide if their fantasy value has gone up, or down.
Quarterback
One of the biggest off-season acquisitions for the Oakland Raiders would be Kerry Collins. Collins had several good years in the Big Apple, but room had to be made for the third coming of the Mannings and Jesse Palmer’s entire bachelorette harem.
Collins is going to a team that could benefit greatly from his services. Rich Gannon is coming off a serious injury and may be at the end of his own rope, opening up the door for Collins, who I believe still has some gas in the tank.
The only thing holding Collins back is the rest of the Raiders offense. At 32, Collins actually brings the average age of the starting offense down considerably. Rice is going to turn 42 in October and Tim Brown turns 38 near the end of this month, and heck Jerry Porter is getting up there at 26… and Tyrone Wheatley is going on 32. And that’s the starting offense in a nutshell. Now I know they are old, but this is still a talented bunch. That’s where Collins comes in. If the offensive line can keep him clean, Collins could put up Gannon-like MVP numbers – he is capable.
Prognosis: You might have to wait until the end of training camp to make this decision. Watch Rich Gannon’s performance and if he doesn’t seem like he can recover from last season’s injury, Collins could be a diamond in the rough and worth a second or third string position on your squad.
Another big name signal caller making a big move after several successful seasons is Jeff Garcia. In my humble opinion, the 49’ers made a big mistake in releasing the two-time pro bowl quarterback.
Garcia heads to a team with a great young receiving core – with the likes of Quincy Morgan, Dennis Northcutt and Andre Davis, and a decent running game with William Green.
This move by the Cleveland Browns could end up being one of the best in the off-season, when Garcia leads the Browns where Tim Couch couldn’t – to a playoff victory. Couch is now the backup in Green Bay and that’s where he should have been when he started, and then Cleveland would have never had to go through that mess… but I digress.
The only thing holding Garcia back is a come-out-of-the-cake preseason performance by Kelly Holcombe. This could put a damper on Garcia’s success, but I don’t think it will happen. Garcia is a definite step above Kelly Holcombe.
Prognosis: I think Garcia should be one of the top QB’s taken in this year’s fantasy draft. I think he will be near career highs in all the major statistical categories and lead the Browns to their first post season win in 10 years.
Other notables: Brian Griese went to Tampa Bay and he’s still a fantasy no show; Shaun King will mean nothing to a hapless Cards offense; Brock who? in Seattle.
Running Backs
Charlie Garner went from one coast to another leaving the Raiders for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. He also went from being in an on-again, off-again situation to another, only this time its worse. Garner has Pittman and Alstott to worry about, not just Tyrone Wheatley anymore. I think Garner’s fantasy stock took a huge tumble and may not even warrant any fantasy consideration unless you are in a deep league. Pittman may have legal troubles, and Alstott might be banged up after years of punishment, but they still come out ahead of Garner.
Prognosis: Once a great ‘sleeper’ running back pick is now off the board in my mind. He has little future playing regularly with the Bucs.
On the other side of the coin, Thomas Jones may see a resurrection of sorts in the Windy City. Anthony Thomas stands in his way, but Jones has the tools to take over the number one spot. He is faster, and more agile than Thomas, and still has the size to take the big hits. He averaged 4.6 yards per carry with the Bucs and there is no reason to believe he can’t continue on that pace.
The only downside to Jones heading to Chicago, is it’s Chicago. They have a mediocre offensive line at best, but that’s the only gamble on Jones.
Prognosis: Jones could be a solid second or third running back for your fantasy team. I would wait until later rounds before taking a stab at him. Chances are a team will shy away from most backs on a load-sharing team.
The sleeper pick out of this all is Garrison Hearst. Hearst has averaged 982 yards a season since he blew his knee out five years ago with the 49’ers. The Broncos are a balanced team and looking for someone to replace the departed head-case, Clinton Portis. I think Hearst might just pick up where Portis left off and scamper his way to a 1,200-yard plus season. Throw in seven or eight TD’s and you have yourself an RB who can play as a second stringer on any team. Besides, I could rack up 1,000 yards rushing for the Broncos.
Prognosis: I’d take him.
The last one we’ll talk about (because the rest don’t matter) is ‘the Duce’ – Duce Staley. Coming out of a three-back system anyone is likely to do better, but in Steel town, you still have to beat out the ageless Jerome Bettis. The young upstart Amos Zereoue couldn’t do it, but my guess is Staley can. Bettis is long in the tooth and can’t handle many more seasons of pounding between the tackles in the NFL. Staley could be a great pickup this season.
Prognosis: He could regain the touch he had between ’98 and ’02 when he had three 1,000+-yard seasons. I could be inclined to take him in the later rounds as insurance.
Notables: I never liked Amos Zereoue, and in Oakland, I still don’t; throw Troy Hambrick into the mix and you have Philly’s three RB backfield; and… this just off the wire… Travis Kirschke went to Pittsburgh. Yay.
Wide Receivers
Let’s just go right out and say it. Terrell Owens is going to have another good year. In Philly, Owens should have a banner year, possibly matching his career high of 1451 yards in 2000 and 16 TD’s in 2001. He went to the right team, too. No one on the Eagles can catch a cold let alone a football, and now Donovan McNabb has the target he has been longing for.
It’s easy enough to predict a big year for Owens, but how will his attitude go over in Philly? How will he and coach Andy Reid work out? Like nitro and glycerin, I think.
Prognosis: As sure as sure could be. If he isn’t the highest rated WR on the draft board, there is something wrong.
Gosh, I hope Dez White doesn’t follow in Peerless Price’s footsteps coming to Atlanta. If that’s the case, he might not be able to get another contract after this one. White comes over as a receiver with great talent, but his numbers don’t show it because of a quarterback nightmare in Chicago. He will most certainly benefit from having Mike Vick pulling the trigger rather than Jim Miller, Chris Chandler, Kordell Stewart… just to name a few.
White is a solid target at 6’1 and 215 lbs who I think will develop into a great possession receiver. I would look for White to snag around 60 balls this year and top the 1,000-yard mark for the first time in his five-year career.
Prognosis: White could be a great third receiver who claws his way into the second spot on your roster by the end of the season.
This may seem like a waste of paper, but Kevin Dyson could be someone to keep an eye on this season. He is recently transplanted from Carolina/Tennessee and looks to be at or near the top of the list going in to training camp in San Diego. He only has to beat out Tim Dwight, Reche Caldwell and Eric Parker – they are name players, but no one who is going to jump out at you.
Dyson is still young at 29, and despite coming off injuries the past two season, I think he will be the go to guy for Drew Brees, or Doug Flutie or Philip Rivers… we’ll save that debate for later.
Prognosis: Dyson may surprise many people and have a career year in San Diego. Still, he might not be worth a pick until later rounds as a third or fourth receiver.
Along with Jeff Garcia, the 49’ers gave up on WR Tai Streets, who seemed like he was going to have a breakout year after 2002. He picked up 750 yards and 5 TD’s that year, but followed it up with a 595 yard, 7 TD effort in 2003.
Streets is a lanky receiver who isn’t afraid to make the tough catch, and he will be paired with last year’s first rounder, Roy Williams in Detroit. This has the potential to be a dynamic duo with Detroit possessing no ground game to speak of. Streets could benefit greatly from this move to the Motor City, and it could resurrect his career.
Prognosis: Could be a sleeper as a number three wide receiver.
Notables: Marcus Robinson has a tough unit to crack in Minnesota; Chris Cole could inject some young blood into the Raiders; and Willie Jackson won’t make a big impact in Denver, if he even stays with all the young talent available.
Tight Ends
With the loss of Shannon Sharpe, the Denver Broncos were looking for a solid pass catching tight end. Byron Chamberlain was available after stints in Minnesota and Washington failed miserably. Chamberlain should emerge as the number one tight end for the Broncos in passing situations, that is if he can keep the weight off. He will face stiff competition with Jed Weaver and OJ Santiago latching on the Mile High City, but neither is a bona-fide pass catcher.
Prognosis: The jury is out on Chamberlain, but keep your eye on him, he could be a great mid-season free agent pick up.
Dave Moore was let go by the Bills at the end of last season and scooped up by the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in the off-season. The only problem is Moore comes in behind Ken Dilger and Rickey Dudley. He probably was on some fantasy rosters with the Bills last season, but he won’t be now that he is with the Bucs.
Prognosis: Not a chance.
We could talk about Jed Weaver and OJ Santiago, but why? Both were picked up by a Broncos team looking to replace Shannon Sharpe. But, I have a hunch that spot will go to Byron Chamberlain, leaving one –or both – of these guys on the outside looking in.
Prognosis: I wouldn’t look at either on my roster.
Notables: Brian Kozlowski jumped from Atlanta to Washington, with no effect; Houston could have a keeper in the aging Mark Bruener; and the silver and black picked up a former their former TE, Roland Williams, who could help; and Todd Yoder heads to Jacksonville to fill a roster spot.